Illustrative photo · Tribunal Superior Eleitoral do Brasil (TSE) / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 4.0
According to a new poll conducted by Quaest and reported by Al Jazeera, Flavio Bolsonaro, a right-wing senator and son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, holds a slight edge over current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The poll suggests Bolsonaro would capture 46 percent of the vote compared to Lula’s 44 percent as both candidates prepare for the decisive run-off election on October 25.
This narrow two-percent difference falls within the poll's margin of error, highlighting a competitive political landscape. Bolsonaro's performance in the first round of voting on October 4 exceeded many expectations, where he outperformed President Lula by less than two percentage points, contrary to earlier polls that favored a first-round win for Lula.
The Quaest poll, the first of its kind since the initial voting round, indicates that Bolsonaro retains his lead. Despite this, analysts note that Bolsonaro has not significantly benefitted from the voter base of other conservative candidates eliminated during the first round.
In response, Lula has been actively rallying support by organizing large public gatherings, aiming to energize his base after the first-round setback. The president's campaign focuses on social and economic issues, recently highlighted by a constitutional amendment passed by Brazil’s Senate that reduces the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without pay cuts—an initiative strongly supported by Lula.
Moreover, Lula recently imposed a ban on sports betting, a move intended to tackle gambling addiction and mitigate rising household debt levels in Brazil. This decision is part of his broader strategy to address economic concerns that resonate with an electorate worried about the cost of living.
The upcoming run-off remains crucial for both candidates as Bolsonaro seeks to strengthen his political coalition, particularly with right and center-right endorsements, while Lula continues to appeal to workers and voters affected by everyday economic challenges.
